US natural gas futures surged over 3.5% to $2.2/MMBtu on Monday, hitting a nearly four-month high fueled by rising demand forecasts for the next two weeks, with feedgas levels to LNG export plants on the rise, notably with the reopening of Freeport LNG in Texas. Gas flow to Freeport reached a two-month peak of 1.4 bcfd on Sunday, up from 1.2 bcfd on Saturday and just 0.4 bcfd in April. Additionally, prices were propped up by a 9% decrease in production in 2024 as companies like EQT and Chesapeake Energy postponed completions and scaled back drilling due to earlier price drops. Looking ahead, meteorologists anticipate a shift in weather patterns, transitioning from above-average temperatures from May 6-9 to near-normal conditions from May 10-17, before returning to warmer than usual temperatures from May 18-21.

The S&P Global Brazil Services PMI fell to 53.7 in April of 2024 from the near two-year high of 54.8 in March, pointing to a slowdown in activity for the Brazilian private services sector. Still, the result reflected the seventh consecutive expansion for service providers following the one-off slump in September of 2023. Growth in business activity stemmed from another period of sharp expansion in new sales, underpinned by local concerts, events, marketing initiatives, and demand resilience. Mirroring the trend, added demand for capacity drove companies to increase their headcounts for a seventh month, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in March, while firms surveyed also increased wages. On the price front, higher salaries, transportation and utility bills, and the sharp decline for the real drove input costs to rise the most since October. While remaining at the positive threshold, business optimism was at its lowest level in nine months and fell below its long-run average.

Industrial producer prices in the Euro Area decreased by 0.4% from the previous month in March 2024, in line with forecasts after a revised 1.1% fall in February. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline, driven by a continued drop in energy costs (-1.8% vs -3.6% in February). Also, prices eased for capital goods (0.1% vs 0.2%) and durable consumer goods (0.1% vs 0.4%). On the other hand, cost advanced faster for intermediate goods (0.1% vs a flat reading in February) and non-durable consumer goods (0.4% vs 0.1%). Excluding energy, producer prices rose 0.2%, following a 0.1% increase in February. On a yearly basis, producer prices declined by 7.8%, compared with market expectations of a 7.7% decrease.

The HCOB Italy Services PMI edged down to 54.3 in April 2024 from 54.6 in the previous month, missing the market forecasts of 54.7. While new business maintained steady growth, albeit at a slower pace, output also moderated, though remaining solid. On the other hand, Italian service providers increased their staffing levels for the sixth consecutive month and the quickest in almost a year, citing the need to handle incoming work. Inflation-wise, pressures remained intensified, with input price inflation hitting a one-year high, driven by rising staff and fuel costs. Consequently, the rate of output charge inflation surged, reaching its strongest level since February 2023. Finally, optimism about future activity remained steady, fueled by factors such as new projects, forecasted demand and new client driving positive sentiment.

WTI crude oil futures rose to above $78.5 per barrel on Monday, edging higher from the near-two-month low of $78.1 touched in the prior session on fresh developments pointing to lower supply. Saudi Aramco hiked the official selling price of its Arab Light crude grade by 90 cents per barrel for June, more than market expectations of a 60-cent increase, to signal confidence that OPEC+ members will cut supply as previously signaled. The move was in line with the cartel's statement last week that they could extend voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day beyond June if demand fails to rebound, although formal discussions on the matter have not started. Additionally, Israel closed the Kerem Shalom humanitarian crossing corridor into Gaza and told civilians to leave Rafah following a series of rockets fired by Hamas over the weekend, risking the perceived progress over a ceasefire and the lower concerns of conflict escalation that drove oil prices to tank last week.

The number of people registering as jobless in Spain dropped by 60,503 people, or 2.2%, bringing the total to 2.67 million in April 2024, the lowest April figure since 2008. It compares with market forecasts of a 74,500 decrease. By sector, jobless numbers were down primarily in the services sector, with a decrease of 42,067 people, followed by construction (-4,902), industry (-4,433) and agriculture (-3,451). Unemployment decreased in 16 Autonomous Communities, led by Andalusia (-20,954 people), Madrid (-8,044 people), and Catalonia (-7,359 people). On a yearly basis, unemployment decreased by 121,870 people, or 4.4%.