NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	4.4 [868]		MVP	Anthony Davis (LAL): +12.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	119		Comeback	1.1 [496]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -8.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	-0.01	-0.01	20	60%	0.13	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Nikola Jokic	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.16	-0.01	0.09	20	65%	0.10	3	-0.05	11	100%	0.04
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.00	0.06	8	87%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	44%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jamal Murray	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	23	43%	-0.02	4	-0.06	5	80%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.02	0.02	17	66%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.01	0.01	15	66%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	-0.04	7	56%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Austin Reaves	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	15	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.03	23	62%	0.12	6	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	28.2	15.4	31.5	3.4	34.2	139.8
league avg	25.7	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +45.4%

DEN -7.4%

LAL +10.0%

DEN -1.6%

LAL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.1	14.0	14.5	105.9	115.5	113.9
season	14.9	14.1		117.0	114.5
opponent	14.3	14.5		114.3	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	14.0	14.2	12.5	14.1
LAL	11.6	14.8	14.6	15.2	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Holiday	10	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-7	3	12.7	14.2	-1.53	9.9	14.5	-4.60
Michael Porter Jr.	86	86	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.33	4	-15	19	13.7	16.1	-2.35	14.4	12.2	2.21
Reggie Jackson	20	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.05	-6	-5	-1	12.4	14.5	-2.03	12.4	14.4	-1.95
Christian Braun	27	26	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.13	-13	2	-15	13.8	14.2	-0.36	13.5	14.2	-0.75
Jamal Murray	81	83	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-8	5	14.5	12.4	2.08	14.4	12.4	1.95
Peyton Watson	30	31	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	0	-11	13.2	14.4	-1.20	12.6	14.6	-2.06
Aaron Gordon	86	86	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-5	-1	14.5	12.1	2.39	14.8	10.1	4.74
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	83	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	-2	-7	14.7	11.3	3.40	14.2	13.0	1.25
Nikola Jokic	87	88	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.22	-7	-4	-3	14.0	14.7	-0.69	13.9	14.9	-1.07

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D'Angelo Russell	87	87	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.11	15	-4	19	14.3	12.2	2.09	14.2	13.3	0.87
Anthony Davis	90	88	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	0	11	14.1	13.8	0.29	13.9	15.4	-1.48
Rui Hachimura	42	42	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.00	13	-2	15	14.2	13.9	0.29	16.6	12.3	4.28
LeBron James	83	82	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.23	1	10	-9	14.6	11.5	3.13	14.1	13.8	0.28
Taurean Prince	67	66	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	7	-3	13.7	14.5	-0.78	12.6	16.8	-4.26
Gabe Vincent	40	37	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	5	1	13.3	14.5	-1.18	12.6	14.9	-2.24
Austin Reaves	60	61	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	10	-9	14.4	13.5	0.87	14.9	12.9	2.01
Spencer Dinwiddie	33	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	7	-3	12.2	14.9	-2.70	13.5	14.3	-0.83
Jaxson Hayes	13	14	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	11	-11	13.8	14.1	-0.29	15.4	13.9	1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 97, UTA 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	96.3%
DEN 108, HOU 118	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.82,0.79,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	96.2%
LAC 89, MIL 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%